# Early bets - Harper or Dion as next PM



## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Seems inevitable and election soon.

I'd also be interested on speculation as to when you think the next election will be.

Also why you think that timing will occur.

Will Harper engineer it or the opposition.


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## RicktheChemist (Jul 18, 2001)

.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

RC - you think voters in Quebec will move to the Bloc or the Cons if you are correct??


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

Any Quebecer who wishes to have any say in the future of the country has to vote Conservative. Voting for a provincial party (Bloc) will change nothing in their favour within Canada.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Geez Sinc - you talk about Dion fracturing the language- what's your excuse?

Quebecor???? !!

•••

I can see the champagne crowd are off to an early binge.  Harper majority eh?We'll revisit this come election time. See how the bubbly crowd faired.


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## ArtistSeries (Nov 8, 2004)

SINC said:


> Any Quebecor who wishes to have any say in the future of the country has to vote Conservative. Voting for a provincial party (Bloc) will change nothing in their favour within Canada.


SINC, my next vote will be for the BLOC - their policies are more akin to my Canadian values and the Cons are too far away. Furthermore, assmonkey Harper has shown that he's ready to pander to the separatists with his definition of Nation.


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## ArtistSeries (Nov 8, 2004)

MacDoc said:


> Seems inevitable and election soon.


Well, Fortier is already on the campaign trail in my region; ads in newpapers (to make his presence known) and meeting with various Con organisers....


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

A interesting twist.

AS - so you feel strengthening Quebec IN Federation while the time is ripe is the right route??

or as a step to complete autonomy?

If Ontario cuts a similar deal I might just be onside for the first option. Goose and gander.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

MacDoc said:


> Geez Sinc - you talk about Dion fracturing the language- what's your excuse?
> 
> Quebecor???? !!


Well, I worked for those pr**** for four years and I guess it was a holdover.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

I figured as much ---- my my isn't that revealing


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## PenguinBoy (Aug 16, 2005)

I think it's far too early to predict, but unless Dion can deliver a *significant* number of seats in QC (which doesn't look likely at this point...) I would expect another Conservative minority.

I can't see Dion making a significant breakthrough in the West, and I imagine Ontario will remain Liberal.

The only good thing that might come of this is the Liberals might be able to pressure the Conservatives on their environmental policies.


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

I wish the Bloc would run some candidates in Ontario.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

MacDoc said:


> I figured as much ---- my my isn't that revealing


Yep they cared for only one thing. Profits. Screw loyalty and screw people. Just profits. Terrible company. I bled for the fine people I was forced to degrade and push out. Oh yeah, I could tell you stories.


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

SINC: I worked with some of the Quebecor printing companies and wasn't that impressed.


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## ArtistSeries (Nov 8, 2004)

SINC said:


> Yep they cared for only one thing. Profits*. Screw loyalty and screw people.* Just profits. Terrible company. I bled for the fine people I was forced to degrade and push out. Oh yeah, I could tell you stories.


That's the mantra of the Cons, no? Certainly looks it and given the way they are trying to run the gov... well I'm surprised that you'd expect differently.
I guess it's the Quebec thing with you SINC.


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## ehMax (Feb 17, 2000)

Too early to vote for me. I don't really know Dion that well. 

Was hoping for someone more inspiring to come out of the Liberal convention. Maybe that will be Dion, just have to learn about him more. 

I'm worried, that in the next election, the left will be split by Liberal, NDP and Green.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

ArtistSeries said:


> I guess it's the Quebec thing with you SINC.


No, it's a *Quebecor* thing. Ask anyone who works for 'em.


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## da_jonesy (Jun 26, 2003)

Who voted for a Harper Majority? How do you figure? Look how certain areas traditionally vote... do the math. You couldn't get more wishful thinking.

My guess is if we get a snap election in the spring we will see the same results as what we have now... Conservative minority.


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## ArtistSeries (Nov 8, 2004)

MacDoc said:


> A interesting twist.
> 
> AS - so you feel strengthening Quebec IN Federation while the time is ripe is the right route??
> 
> ...


I liked that Trudeau believed in a strong Canada, to a certain level so did Chretien. Dion wrote the Clarity Act and I agreed with many of his tenets. It seems that he's going back on some of them, too bad.

If Harper and the mood of the country is to let regions have all the power while weakening the Federal structure, then let's get it over and be on our merry ways. I'd prefer to see a strong Canada that offers some flexibility to provinces but this definition of "nation" is farcical. 
Looking around, the Bloc is standing for values that I like (Kyoto, the right to SSM, against the certain Harper empty gestures), so my vote is no longer being one for Canada but moving towards a "what can we get".


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## HowEver (Jan 11, 2005)

No worries, the Liberals just elected a leader more Green than the Green Party (their ambiguous "platform" which changes almost monthly now gives some strange nods to big business considering) and much fresher than the NDP. Too bad Quebec might not come on board though, but we'll see.




ehMax said:


> Too early to vote for me. I don't really know Dion that well.
> 
> Was hoping for someone more inspiring to come out of the Liberal convention. Maybe that will be Dion, just have to learn about him more.
> 
> I'm worried, that in the next election, the left will be split by Liberal, NDP and Green.


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## bryanc (Jan 16, 2004)

I've never even considered voting Liberal, but I think the liberal candidate will get my vote in the next federal election.

I'd certainly rather risk a return to Liberal majorities than continued Conservative governments (minority or, even worse, majority). But my preference would be a Liberal minority with the balance of power held by either the NDP, the Greens or even the Bloc.

I'm looking forward to Canada reversing it's recent unfortunate participation in a race to the bottom with the U.S. Harper's government is, unfortunately, doing almost exactly what they said they would. I'm hoping for a spring election.

Cheers


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

HowEver said:


> No worries, the Liberals just elected a leader more Green than the Green Party


Odd thing about that is the Greens will be offended. The truth is the guy allowed Kyoto emissions under his watch as environment head honcho in the Liberal cabinet to actually increase, not decrease.


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## TroutMaskReplica (Feb 28, 2003)

i voted con minority. i don't see much change in voting patterns in the near term.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

I think he was only environment minister under Martin. His plan was still inadequate and poorly designed (with some bright spots), but he was not, to my memory, an architect of the long-standing approach to get votes by supporting Kyoto and then doing little more than wasteful window-dressing. It was just a year or two.


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

it will be interesting to see if harper can hold onto his un-forseen (by punditry) seats in QC

harper's QC support did take a nose dive with his stance on GHG and the middle east

we'll see if the nationhood issue brings votes his way

Libs and Cons are currently only about 20 seats apart and that was with Gomery and Adscam hang over still quite recent

I think it will really come down to the nationally televised debates
Both Dion and Harper are educated debaters with Jack Layton now looking like a lap dog

I think the Liberals that went to the NDP will now come back with the Liberals' green platform
Canadians are a pragmatic bunch and if they see the Libs as a green alternative with a real chance at power, they will vote Liberal instead of NDP or Green

the trick will be for Dion to appeal to voters in QC and retain ON support, which I suspect will fall on the shoulders of MB born Kennedy who could also reach out to the West.

I also think the green policy of Dion will do well in urban BC

again, a lot will depend on the debate and if any stupid comments are made by either Cons or Libs

I am pleased that the Dion win spells the end for the cabal of Chretien and Martin ites who are now dusting off resumes and looking for jobs
not to mention all those power brokers and lobbyists that influenced that aforementioned cabal

I'm ready to sit thru another Con minority as long as it means real change for the party coming from the leadership of the likes of Dion and Kennedy


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## ArtistSeries (Nov 8, 2004)

Beej said:


> I think he was only environment minister under Martin.


Don't you know? Facts don't count to Cons (even the easy ones to google).
Dion was Minister of the Environment from 2004 to 2006, his record is still the same....


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

MACSPECTRUM said:


> the trick will be for Dion to appeal to voters in QC and retain ON support, which I suspect will fall on the shoulders of MB born Kennedy who could also reach out to the West.


If you think westerners are somehow enamoured of one of their own crossing the floor at a convention to foist yet another Liberal leader from Quebec on us, you would be very wrong.

Kennedy is considered closer to a traitor for that action, than one who can garner any western votes.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

Strangely enough, Layton is quite well-educated too. He just hides it extremely well. 

The three federal leaders are now all highly educated non-lawyers (two poli-sci people?). That in and of itself isn't a good thing, but the notion that such a demanding job requires a lot more than just being liked is a good thing. I'd still like more diversity of backgrounds, but this is a good step. Layton is odd one out in that he is deeply into the "sales" aspect of politics, not as a compromise but as a central driving force. Whatever works will dominate. Sticking to ideas and pushing them, or selling used cars or a handy blend. All three have the ability to adapt. The desire is another matter.

It is way too early to call, but some will get lucky because there are only a few options to call.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

ArtistSeries said:


> Don't you know? Facts don't count to Cons (even the easy ones to google).
> Dion was Minister of the Environment from 2004 to 2006, his record is still the same....


AS, you accuse me of nitpicking or other silly labels when facts don't favour your notions, and do the above when they do favour your notions. Give it a rest. Everyone, including you and me, make simple factual errors, and just need to say "oops". Sinc has been, on more than one occasion, willing to do so in the past, while others just turn around and attack, avoid or worse, more often than not, when caught.


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

SINC said:


> If you think westerners are somehow enamoured of one of their own crossing the floor at a convention to foist yet another Liberal leader from Quebec on us, you would be very wrong.
> 
> Kennedy is considered closer to a traitor for that action, than one who can garner any western votes.


"Westerners" include those in MB, SK, AB and BC


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

MACSPECTRUM said:


> I am pleased that the Dion win spells the end for the cabal of Chretien and Martin ites who are now dusting off resumes and looking for jobs
> not to mention all those power brokers and lobbyists that influenced that aforementioned cabal
> 
> I'm ready to sit thru another Con minority as long as it means real change for the party coming from the leadership of the likes of Dion and Kennedy


It appears on the surface of it and what people who know more about these affair than me are saying, that the elite within the LPC have been rebuked. I hope this is the reality of it, but the powermongers will not just leave, they will adapt to the new reality and will be busy pressuring the new leadership of the party, as they do within every party. No doubt they will have victories, as they do within every party, but the amount that Dion and his lieutenants sell out to them for the power they will wield will all depend on the quality of the leaders principles. That remains to be seen, but at this point I feel rather optimistic. My sense is that Dion cares about more than power, I certainly didn't have that sense about Chretien or Martin.

I've never voted for a Liberal before but I'm holding out a vote for him if he can lead his party based on the principles that I've heard about so far.


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## daBoss (Jun 20, 2003)

SINC said:


> If you think westerners are somehow enamoured of one of their own crossing the floor at a convention to foist yet another Liberal leader from Quebec on us, you would be very wrong.
> 
> Kennedy is considered closer to a traitor for that action, than one who can garner any western votes.


Rest assured Sinc, that not ALL westerners share your views. Like every other region of Canada, we are not one monolithic block with one set of views. Even within the apparently monolithic Alberta Tories, divisions and a variety of opinions exist. Witness the great differences between the three finalists in the Tory runoff election.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

daBoss said:


> Rest assured Sinc, that not ALL westerners share your views. Like every other region of Canada, we are not one monolithic block with one set of views. Even within the apparently monolithic Alberta Tories, divisions and a variety of opinions exist. Witness the great differences between the three finalists in the Tory runoff election.


Yep, I know. There are oddballs everywhere.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

By your definition about 2/3s of this country are oddballs 
Luckily we do protect MINORITIES in this nation - tho not from ridicule 

••••

Dion's willingness to buck the system and even stand up to the likes of Chretien is one reason I'm pleased.

Unfortunately that MAY be a weakness in getting elected as he needs the machinery which for the Libs used to be legendary ( you could see some elements of it at the convention ).

Still the outsider in the catbird seat ws a rejection by the grassroots of the party that the old boys are not in control of the agenda anymore and THAT is very good in my mind.

Hell the Bloc and NDP are going to be the most experienced parties


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

• Liberal: 37 per cent (+5)
• Conservative: 31 per cent (-1)
• NDP: 14 per cent (-3)
• Bloc Quebecois: 11 per cent (unchanged)
• Green: 7 per cent (-2)

CTV.ca

It's early and I'm surprised they could get a poll done this quick, but that's a healthy bounce for Dion. It's edging into majority government territory.


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

one would normally expect a "bump" from a leadership convention, especially one that had some "drama"

that will probably fade and Dion will need to roll up his sleeves and has a lot of work to do

interesting to note that a it appears that a big portion of the Liberal bump came from the NDP


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## zoziw (Jul 7, 2006)

Without reading the thread, and after having both my federal Liberal and provincial Conservative predictions shot to pieces...I predict another Harper minority.

I think the Conservatives will do better in english Canada, but question if they can hold their seats in Quebec.


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## daBoss (Jun 20, 2003)

zoziw said:


> Without reading the thread, and after having both my federal Liberal and provincial Conservative predictions shot to pieces...I predict another Harper minority.
> 
> I think the Conservatives will do better in english Canada, but question if they can hold their seats in Quebec.


I like your reverse psychology.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Maybe I should have clarified the poll tho I thought it kind of obvious.

What you THINK WILL happen - not what you want to happen.

Do that many people really THINK there will be a majority on the NEXT election for either party. 

I surprised at the poll too and think it's a blip but there was a ton of energy in that convention and the Cons were slipping outside of Alberta.

T'is the season to be jolly 

••

Well Z is on to something as it's a very volatile electorate and Ontario has defied prediction and Quebec sprang a surprise as well..

Interesting times and a new player doth strut and gambol upon the stage.


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## PenguinBoy (Aug 16, 2005)

GratuitousApplesauce said:


> It's edging into majority government territory.


I don't see how *any* party can hope for a majority any time soon.
-The Bloc will take a fair number of seats in QC
-The Liberals will take the majority of seats in ON
-The Conservatives have a virtual lock on AB

None of the above is likely to change any time soon, so it will be *very* hard to pull together a majority out of the remaining seats that are in play.


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

that same CTV poll, as i heard on the ctv tv news, had the Liberals at 48% in ON

i do agree that we are in for minority gov't for quite some time unless QC separates


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

I agree with PenB- there a three distinct regions/parties now and getting more and more entrenched.
It will take some charismatic leader at either the Fed or Provincial level to make any substantial change in my view.

I'd just like to see the clowns on the Hill stop butting heads and pass some legislation - even if its the Bloc Lib and NDP and just put Harper on ignore.


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## RicktheChemist (Jul 18, 2001)

.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

The NDP has banner ads on the Globe and Mail website going after the Liberals. Linking to their site there is a Dion-attack piece with such powerful insights as:
............................
Dion was supported by “Harper Liberals” Bryon Wilfret and Charles Hubbard who voted against extending marriage equality under the Charter and Paul Steckle who has “Simply put, I oppose abortion.” 
............................



They should be nervous. Cons are going after the standard "same old Libs" story with a special focus on enviro-failure:
.....................
IGNATIEFF: We didn’t get it done (on the environment).

DION: This is unfair. You don’t know what you speak about. You don’t know what you speak about. Do you think it’s easy to make priorities?

DOMINIC LEBLANC: Mr. Ignatieff?

DRYDEN: Stephane, the point is that we didn’t get it done. It’s not anybody individually. We didn’t get it done collectively.
.....................



This will be a very interesting election runup.


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## guytoronto (Jun 25, 2005)

Based on the poll results, I wonder if people are voting who they HOPE will win, versus who they BET will win.

I can't imagine how anyone can figure Dion could win a majority government.


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## ArtistSeries (Nov 8, 2004)

The NDP are starting to look desperate. Why don't they just explain their attacks.

Here's the link to the puff piece Beej talks about.  
http://www.ndp.ca/page/4640

It's nice to see the Cons attacking Dion because of the rise in GHG gasses that originate from Alberta...


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Nor Harper a majority since he's falling outside Alberta.

It all depends on WHICH minority we get.

The NDP are likely to get hurt in this now there is no "spank the Liberals" from the Liberal voters as there was last time and Dion has a clear policy platform.

Maybe that cartoon was not so far off the mark



> Dion comes out swinging
> Dec. 4, 2006. 12:23 PM
> LES WHITTINGTON
> OTTAWA BUREAU
> ...


http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/Co...ageid=968332188492&col=968793972154&t=TS_Home

Lots of fireworks on the Hill I suspect.


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## Vandave (Feb 26, 2005)

ArtistSeries said:


> The NDP are starting to look desperate. Why don't they just explain their attacks.


They should be desperate.

Jack Layton has made the NDP irrelevant by not negotiating with the Conservatives. They went from kingmaker under Martin to the sidelines under Harper. Harper entertained the possibility and making a deal with them, but Layton made all his priorities non-negotiable. 

And now the Liberal party has positioned themselves further to the left and will stand to gain some of the environmental vote.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Really they ALL need to learn to work together in a minority and quit making EVERYTHING a political showdown.


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## Fredou51 (Oct 29, 2006)

I think that now that a lot of people voting NDP experienced what it is to have a Cons governement, their vote will slide towards the Liberal next election to defeat Harper. It won't show in the poll but I think it will show on election day.

Frederic


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## bryanc (Jan 16, 2004)

Fredou51 said:


> I think that now that a lot of people voting NDP experienced what it is to have a Cons governement, their vote will slide towards the Liberal next election to defeat Harper. It won't show in the poll but I think it will show on election day.


You're quite right Frederic. I've voted NDP in every election up until now. I'll very likely vote Liberal in the next (unless they do something that indicates to me that they have no intention of following through on their environmental platform).

It's not that I see the NDP as irrelevant, but I'd rather be voting NDP to wrest power from the Liberals than voting NDP as a protest against the Conservatives.

Small steps. The first step is giving Harper and his corporate masters an unequivocal spanking. Then we can start moving on from the modest progress represented by the liberals.

Cheers


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

bryanc said:


> You're quite right Frederic. I've voted NDP in every election up until now. I'll very likely vote Liberal in the next (unless they do something that indicates to me that they have no intention of following through on their environmental platform).


Liberals an environmental party? That is a laugh considering they are now led by DND, (Do Nothing Dion) when he was environmental minister.

At least the Conservatives introduced a bill to reduce emissions to an attainable target. Kyoto targets are impossible without buying credits from other countries and that is not a good plan.


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## Vandave (Feb 26, 2005)

MacDoc said:


> Really they ALL need to learn to work together in a minority and quit making EVERYTHING a political showdown.


I agree. They could all do a better job. But, when Layton makes a comment right after the election saying he won't meet with Harper and that they would need a research team to find common ground, it makes for a bad start.

I think most Canadians want Ottawa to get on with governing and don't want to see another election. The vast majority of Canadians either voted Liberal or Conservative. On this basis, I think the two parties need to move forward together.

I hope this election campaign doesn't get ugly because it will make the next minority government short lived as well. Can I change my vote from Con majority to Con minority? I don't know what I was thinking at the time. I don't see a majority government for some time.


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

I was looking at the NDP friendly Rabble/Babble forum yesterday and it looks like many there are welcoming Dion as leader. They aren't all NDP partisans there but the vast majority are. I think for the NDP partisans, Dion is scary. For those who care less about the party and more about the issues, then if Dion is for real, that would be welcome. I think many NDPers think that a Dion LPC and the NDP would be natural allies in a minority, somewhat like Lewis/Broadbent and Trudeau.

Two of my major problems with the Libs are their passive involvement in Deep Integration as well as many instances of not protecting Canadian sovereignty in areas of NAFTA and their hostility towards proportional representation. I'm not sure where Dion would exactly end up on these issues, but he looks like an improvement over Martin/Chretien from my standpoint. I also really hope that his green-ness isn't just talk. My gut feeling is that it is real conviction and I might be swayed by that alone even if his other positions don't exactly meet mine. As I said in another posting, I've never voted Liberal, although I haven't only voted NDP (no right-wingers I haven't voted Marxist-Leninist either )


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## Vandave (Feb 26, 2005)

GratuitousApplesauce said:


> I think many NDPers think that a Dion LPC and the NDP would be natural allies in a minority, somewhat like Lewis/Broadbent and Trudeau.


On the surface, one would think they could be natural allies.

But the reality is that bickering seems to increase when two parties are really close in belief. They each will fight over the fringe votes of the other party.

The Conservatives and the Liberal Party (based on how they governed for the last decade) and actually quite similar with their policies. In this government they are the two parties most similar to each other. Yet, one of them will bring the current government down.


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## Dreambird (Jan 24, 2006)

SINC said:


> Liberals an environmental party? That is a laugh considering they are now led by DND, (Do Nothing Dion) when he was environmental minister.
> 
> At least the Conservatives introduced a bill to reduce emissions to an attainable target. Kyoto targets are impossible without buying credits from other countries and that is not a good plan.


I've noticed that it's always convenient to point a finger back at the last party in power... no matter who it was... 

In any case I'm having a bit of trouble clarifying for myself exactly what Harper is doing instead of the Kyoto protocol which his gov. says we will not meet. What I'm finding digging on the internet is underwhelming to say the least so I put in a call to my MP asking for some uuuhmmm... "hard copy" in my snail mail as to what exactly their plan is. I was told the dude who can help me is in tomorrow... we shall see.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

Dreambird said:


> I've noticed that it's always convenient to point a finger back at the last party in power... no matter who it was...


When the whole world now points at the Conservatives who are trying, and did no pointing while the Liberals did nothing, it is a simple matter of self defense to point back.


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

VD said:


> On the surface, one would think they could be natural allies.
> 
> But the reality is that bickering seems to increase when two parties are really close in belief. They each will fight over the fringe votes of the other party.
> 
> The Conservatives and the Liberal Party (based on how they governed for the last decade) and actually quite similar with their policies. In this government they are the two parties most similar to each other. Yet, one of them will bring the current government down.


That is unfortunately because a first-past-the-post electoral system abhors minority governments. Under pro-rep the dynamic is different and parties that are philosophically close to each other will more often than not work together to share power and will create consensus rather than opposition. But co-operation can happen under FPTP if the leaders actually have principles that are more important than power for its own sake. I don't believe you could often say that for Chretien or Martin, nor do I think that of Harper and many in his group. In my mind the ugly bickering that happened around the time of Stronach's defection and the Grewal incident showed quite clearly that these guys were all about power at any cost.

Just thinking about what Harper might do now, and I suspect he will be compelled to put up an even bigger facade of moving to the left, to try and capture blue Libs. This would certainly be a bait and switch that would become evident if he were ever to gain a majority and I hope centre-right Libs realize this.


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

Vandave said:


> They should be desperate.
> 
> Jack Layton has made the NDP irrelevant by not negotiating with the Conservatives. They went from kingmaker under Martin to the sidelines under Harper. Harper entertained the possibility and making a deal with them, but Layton made all his priorities non-negotiable.
> 
> And now the Liberal party has positioned themselves further to the left and will stand to gain some of the environmental vote.



wow, i find myself agreeing with Vandave
has hell frozen over?


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Canadians don;t even need to understand what the Cons are not doing on the environment - the world has already voted on that.

It in no way exonerates the Libs but that was Martin all the way - lots of talk, lots of surplus , no action until forced to the wall and then it was too late. 

The Big engine that wouldn't . 

Being Environment Minister does not mean you get the funds allocated and to be fair the level of concern worldwide was not what it is now.
Does not mean the Libs should get a free pass tho - Mulroney did more according to studies even in a deficit situation.

It was not a job well done by the Liberals but the Cons approach - 2050 - is simply inexcusable by the electorate or the world and has harmed Canada's reputation enormously abroad.


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## Vandave (Feb 26, 2005)

MacDoc said:


> Being Environment Minister does not mean you get the funds allocated and to be fair the level of concern worldwide was not what it is now.


That's a weak excuse.

If you are a Minister, you either get the job done or you resign.

If climate change was a big priority for Dion, then he should have made his opinion known or walked. Otherwise, he was probably just there for political gain.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

In his leadership policy paper on climate change, he didn't go much further. I think he actually believed in his Green Plan or thought that if he went too far, it would look like admitting failure. The other Lib candidates didn't have much trouble admitting it.  

I did note that Dion released a number of meaty policy papers. Good on him, especially compared to Rae's "vote for experience" and "I can win" campaign vacuum.


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

Vandave said:


> That's a weak excuse.
> 
> If you are a Minister, you either get the job done or you resign.
> 
> If climate change was a big priority for Dion, then he should have made his opinion known or walked. Otherwise, he was probably just there for political gain.


excellent idea
when can we expect you to demand Emmerson's resignation not to mention Rona Ambrose


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

MACSPECTRUM said:


> excellent idea
> when can we expect you to demand Emmerson's resignation not to mention Rona Ambrose


You can't be serious. She at least has a plan. DND (Do Nothing Dion) had none when he held the same portfolio.

How soon Liberals rather conveniently forget things like that.


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

SINC said:


> You can't be serious. She at least has a plan. DND (Do Nothing Dion) had none when he held the same portfolio.
> 
> How soon Liberals rather conveniently forget things like that.


yes, and i have a plan to lose weight by lowering my caloric intake % vs. weight by 2050
by which time i should be dead

i noticed you deftly avoided emmerson


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

The most common criticism of Dion (aside from NDP/Con partisan thrashing) seems to be that he's weak in QC because he is a staunch federalist and believer in a unified Canada. That's a criticism? Watch and see. This is all up in the air now.


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## ErnstNL (Apr 12, 2003)

From Monday Nov 14, 2006
Liberal leadership candidate Stephane Dion said Monday the oilpatch isn't doing nearly enough to slash its greenhouse gas emissions and vowed to introduce "demanding" targets for petroleum producers.

But *he steered clear of proposing a carbon tax,* an initiative called for recently by Liberal race front-runner Michael Ignatieff -- and a policy endorsed by a majority of Canadians in a recent poll.

Dion acknowledged heavy carbon dioxide emitters, such as the oil and gas industry, may reject his own carbon market trading plan in its early stages, but would eventually adopt it once they realize the financial and competitive advantages.

"Industry may not be happy at the beginning. Nobody likes to be regulated," Dion said in an interview with the Herald on Monday, during a stop in Calgary.

"The slow-movers may be more vocal, but the industry will work with us if it is demanding, but reasonable."

The core of Dion's plan is for the federal government to introduce Canada into a global carbon trading market. While industry's reduction targets would have to be determined, such a proposal could, for example, enforce emission-reduction targets of 10 per cent on industry.

Companies that reduce emissions beyond the target can then sell their surplus carbon credits on the global market to businesses that still need to meet the regulated level. The proposal, Dion said, encourages industry to invest in more energy-efficient technologies, and capture and store carbon dioxide.

"The ones that are good will have a reward . . . it will stimulate the innovation that is dormant today," he said.

"If we are able to reconcile the economy and the environment in Fort
McMurray, we'll be able to export this know-how everywhere in the world."

Establishing aggressive emission-reduction targets for petroleum producers is critical, he added, because the oilsands have quickly become "one of the milk cows of the country."

Alberta emits more greenhouse gases than any other province, with oil and gas production across Canada accounting for about 20 per cent of the country's total emissions, according to a new report from the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental group.

Pierre Alvarez, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said a carbon tax is a "crude" instrument that his group has always rejected. However, *Dion's proposal of a carbon market is one of many options worth pursuing as industry looks to cut its emissions.*

"It should be one of a series of flexibility mechanisms that should be available to companies if they're required to true up to targets of one form or another," Alvarez said.

"We would want to make sure we have a full suite of options," he added, noting the development of new technologies, "because each company is going to have a different approach."

Dion, one of four leading contenders for the Liberal leadership, also reiterated his commitment to environmental tax reforms that would offer tax rebates on energy-efficient vehicles, appliances, furnaces and retrofits for homes. For example, Canadians could receive tax credits of up to $2,000 toward the purchase of fuel-efficient vehicles.

Ignatieff, meanwhile, has proposed a form of carbon tax, to be levied at the pumps, penalizing those who use gasoline and diesel. Advocates of a carbon tax suggest such a measure has a better chance of curbing individual behaviour, compared with education programs that fail to provide an incentive for change.

* A recent Ipsos Reid poll completed for CanWest News Service found a majority of Canadians -- including potentially a majority of Albertans -- believe the federal government should levy a tax on carbon-based energy sources.*

Source: Calgary Herald - Jason Fekete

What the new PM Dion will have in store for Alberta.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

ErnstNL said:


> What the new PM Dion will have in store for Alberta.


Somehow it figures that it will be a guy from Quebec who will cause the resurrection of western separatism with regressive oil policies.


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

Beej said:


> The most common criticism of Dion (aside from NDP/Con partisan thrashing) seems to be that he's weak in QC because he is a staunch federalist and believer in a unified Canada. That's a criticism? Watch and see. This is all up in the air now.


The thing I don't understand about that criticism is that those in Quebec who are offended by Dion's stance are all already voting Bloc. The people who called him a traitor would never be voting Liberal anyway. There are many there who agree with the federalist cause but didn't vote Lib last time because of the sponsorship scandal. Chretien had the same federalist perception yet won many seats there, pre-sponsorship. But Dion isn't tainted with the sleaze from that and many Quebecers might be ready to support a Quebec Liberal who is perceived as upstanding and stood outside the party power structure.

Yesterday's poll noted that Quebec respondents had the highest rating for him as Liberal leader.


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## Vandave (Feb 26, 2005)

GratuitousApplesauce said:


> The thing I don't understand about that criticism is that those in Quebec who are offended by Dion's stance are all already voting Bloc. The people who called him a traitor would never be voting Liberal anyway. There are many there who agree with the federalist cause but didn't vote Lib last time because of the sponsorship scandal. Chretien had the same federalist perception yet won many seats there, pre-sponsorship. But Dion isn't tainted with the sleaze from that and many Quebecers might be ready to support a Quebec Liberal who is perceived as upstanding and stood outside the party power structure.
> 
> Yesterday's poll noted that Quebec respondents had the highest rating for him as Liberal leader.


I don't think federalism is a black and white issue. On one extreme you have the Bloc and the other pure Federalists. It sounds like Dion is viewed in Quebec as being on the Federalist extreme. Somewhere in the middle, you have Harper who is willing to give Quebec more powers within a federated Canada.


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## ArtistSeries (Nov 8, 2004)

SINC said:


> You can't be serious. She at least has a plan. DND (Do Nothing Dion) had none when he held the same portfolio.
> 
> How soon Liberals rather conveniently forget things like that.


Wow SINC, still spouting so-con little sound bytes?

Her plan is to delay anything meaningful for the next 50 years as per order of the Calgary board rooms. Great plan...

Like I posted elsewhere; Sure you can criticize Dion for not doing enough but the regressive Con plan has set the bar so low that it's comparable to a boxing match between a sleep deprived anemic Urkel fighting Mike Tyson on a good day.


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## (( p g )) (Aug 17, 2002)

The argument I keep hearing about how Dion can't possibly do well in Quebec on account of his pro-federalist views is just plain defective. If there's a lesson to be learned from the brokerage politics of Mulroney, Martin and Harper (all of which tried the route of co-opting sovereigntists into their respective caucuses) is that is just doesn't work. It sets up expectations that can never be met and eventually we wind up with a situation where the chickens come home to roost. 

What I like about Dion is that there's no doubt about where he stands on this issue (among others). He's a federalist--and one that never backs down from engaging separatists and smoking them out. 

When you take a position and you defend it to the teeth eloquently and persuasively--especially when it seems contrary to the opinion of a majority--that's leadership. 

If Harper's smart, he'll sit tight on his minority Parliament, come up with a budget that features a short list of popular tax breaks and a long list of spending cuts...and then dare the Opposition parties to try defeating the bill. But given the way these guys have been governing of late, it's a mistake that they'll do the smart thing.


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

ArtistSeries said:


> ...it's comparable to a boxing match between a sleep deprived anemic Urkel fighting Mike Tyson on a good day.


OUCH! That's the most tortured simile I've heard all week!


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## PenguinBoy (Aug 16, 2005)

HowEver said:


> the Liberals just elected a leader more Green than the Green Party


It's entirely possible that this might be just the thing to push *all* parties to become more green. If the Conservatives think that this might cost them the next election, it might push them to put more emphasis on environmental issues. I don't see why protecting the environment should be a partisan issue - there are plenty of folks out there who don't have much time for "rabble.ca" type ideas who are still interested in environmental protection.

This sort of thing has happened before, in the late '80s and early '90s Preston Manning and Reform were talking about the importance of balanced budgets. Many others at that time thought things like "Deficits don't matter that much, it's just borrowing money from yourself" and "Deficits are the price we pay for a just society" (no links to back these up, they are my recollection of something one of the federal candidates said in the early '90s). When the Liberals realized that something had to be done, and that Reform might get some traction as deficit fighters, they actually went ahead and did an excellent job of balancing the budget. These days *all* parties advocate fiscal responsibility - even the folks over at rabble.ca - and we are all the better for it.

Perhaps the same thing will happen with the environment once the Tories see Dion making points with his green platform....


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## Brainstrained (Jan 15, 2002)

The Globe and Mail's Jeffrey Simpson was online this afternoon discussing Dion's win, and included several comments on his popularity in Quebec. You can read the entire discussion here.

Simpson made several points regarding Dion's popularity, mainly that perception is not reality, including:



> Check out this morning Strategic Counsel poll in The Globe. Quebeckers, asked if the Liberals made the best choice, replied 62-29 per cent "yes." Remove the Anglophones and allophones from that sample, and you'd get something like 55-29 approval among francophones.


and



> I agree he has a perception problem in Quebec because of the elites. What infuriates them is that he won't play the game, and the game in Quebec is leverage with the rest of Canada, and to have leverage you have to be unhappy in various ways. Once you're happy, your leverage is gone.
> Dion says: Be happy and get on with more important things like the environment. The political class that has grown up on the narrative of leverage hates moving off it.


This afternoon on CBC radio, Macleans' columnist Paul Wells made the same point about the poll and also noted that Dion's best poll numbers were in Quebec among francophone voters.

This is certainly reminiscent of Quebec's attitude to two long-serving Liberal leaders and successful Prime Ministers -- Pierre Trudeau and Jean Chretien.


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## Dreambird (Jan 24, 2006)

ErnstNL said:


> From Monday Nov 14, 2006
> Liberal leadership candidate Stephane Dion said Monday the oilpatch isn't doing nearly enough to slash its greenhouse gas emissions and vowed to introduce "demanding" targets for petroleum producers.
> 
> But *he steered clear of proposing a carbon tax,* an initiative called for recently by Liberal race front-runner Michael Ignatieff -- and a policy endorsed by a majority of Canadians in a recent poll.
> ...


From the Herald... thank-you. Better than the Sun.

I'm very happy to see that Dion has not backed off bringing up the oil sands and happy (surprised, but happy) to see that he is getting some support for his ideas in Alberta.

Much better than this:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/story/2006/10/19/clean-act.html

What's Harper's plan to improve the oil sands? As I said... underwhelming.


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## rondini (Dec 6, 2001)

I for one, welcome our future PM, Celine Dion! Does she have dual citizenship now? Las Vegan and Quebecois within a united Canada?


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## MACSPECTRUM (Oct 31, 2002)

rondini said:


> I for one, welcome our future PM, Celine Dion! Does she have dual citizenship now? Las Vegan and Quebecois within a united Canada?


Las Vegan?
is that someone that gambles without using any products made from animals?


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## PenguinBoy (Aug 16, 2005)

Dreambird said:


> I'm very happy to see that Dion has not backed off bringing up the oil sands and happy (surprised, but happy) to see that he is getting some support for his ideas in Alberta.


I think there is a fair amount of grassroots support for environmental protection in Alberta - I don't think there is much support for many other Liberal ideas though.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

PenguinBoy said:


> I think there is a fair amount of grassroots support for environmental protection in Alberta - I don't think there is much support for many other Liberal ideas though.


You got that right PenguinBoy!

“EDMONTON - Premier-designate Ed Stelmach said he has no intention of trying to slow down the growth of oilsands development in northern Alberta.”

AND:

“Stelmach was at times more combative during his news conference than he was on the campaign trail. He warned federal Liberal Leader Stephane Dion and anyone else who would harm Alberta's oil and gas industry that he's no pushover.
"I am going tell them right off the bat that they have to be careful as to the kind of policies they start articulating," he said. "Any damage to Alberta's economy is going to severely hurt Ottawa and their treasury as well."


Full story here:

http://www.canada.com/edmontonjourn...b4fb2-bbb6-43ba-9b10-67df49d5fbfa&k=77256&p=2


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## Dreambird (Jan 24, 2006)

OK... I'm going to post this reply in this thread and then shut-up with it (in this thread)... because it fits in this thread IMO...  

What can I say?

Dion's stance on the oil sands is posted above which is not too distressing to me... I've carefully read the piece re: Stelmach's position in the Edmonton Journal and I don't see it as saying he doesn't care at all... I think I'll wait and see what happens as he settles into office. 

The crux of the thing from where I sit is that _something_ has to be done. I feel this article belongs here in this thread too:
http://www.energybulletin.net/22348.html



> The study says that strip mining in the oilsands requires two to 4.5 cubic metres of water to extract one cubic metre of synthetic crude oil.
> 
> The water becomes heavily polluted in the process and only 10 per cent is returned to the river, with the rest held in huge storage ponds that are among the largest manmade structures on Earth.


That struck me as staggering... I knew it was a lot but not that. My jaw hit the floor. Then there's the emissions. AND the water thing is causing discomfort to our neighbours such as Saskatchewan or could very much so in the near future.
(before 2050).

I will admit as an Albertan I enjoy the benefits of the wealth here abouts as much as the next person, there are things I'm extremely grateful for... however sometimes the cost becomes too high and compromises are needed. 

I agree with this from the above link:



> It recommends a moratorium on further oilsands projects until the water problems can be solved.


I don't take that to mean a full stop on production just expansion until conditions are improved. If they have anything else in mind clearly it would devastate our economy completely which is not exactly what I'm after either. It's a delicate balance.

Of course I realize most Albertans are not going to see that the same way as me.


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## bryanc (Jan 16, 2004)

My wife used to work for Syncrude, collecting dead birds from the tailings ponds. They put a few students to work trying to come up with ways to reduce the number of birds this practise was killing, and they were very successful... at generating tax-rebates for the money they spent on the students. 

They never managed to reduce the number of birds they killed very much.

Like a drug-addict that makes obviously damaging long-term decisions to satisfy their immediate desire for a fix, Alberta is sacrificing the environment, it's fresh water supply, and it's long-term economic viability for the short-term profits of multinational oil companies.

Pathetic.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

> Of course I realize most Albertans are not going to see that the same way as me.


But the more like you that get "staggered" - the sooner some steps WILL be taken.
I too had no idea of the water impact and that surely opens up Alberta to legal implications.

Air pollution remedies over jurisdiction boundaries may be in the early stages ( I think Ontario is suing Ohio ) but water rights and protections have a long history.

Dion is keeping this front and centre and given the concern it is likely to be a major part of the election decision.....unless of course the Cons wake up and get a multi-party act in place.

I really wish they would - make me much happier with parliament in general and show a minority gov can actually work to consensus.
If ever there was an issue crying for a unified approach this is.
We can dream........


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

The Federal oil sands change for multi-party support is simple but challenging for individual MPs. Remove the special tax treatment on investments going foward.

The parties should agree to it, but the Cons may be worried about their AB base and the Libs may be worried because they put it in place. 

The argument, as with the Trust issue is strong: it was put in place to help incubate an industry that, at the time, was unhealthy but sitting on huge potential. That's no longer a problem and Canada is benefiting (tax revenues and economic impact are quite diverse). 

It is also simple (go-forward basis), and sends the enviro message for those who want to interpret it that way and the middle-middle message (help fund more tangible tax cuts) for those who want to interpret it that way.

Win-win-win if communicated properly (incubation period is obviously not needed) with pockets of dissent that are limited in multiple ways (corporate; areas that won't vote Lib/NDP).

Besides, some of the conferences I attend would be deeply amusing so, if for nothing else, do it for my entertainment!


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

But surely Beej if the industry is asking for caps that aspect can be divorced from the special tax treatment issue - in fact don't the two actually complement each other.

Shifting development breaks to green development breaks.
I don't think they need the breaks as industry is saving $1.50-2.50 a barrel to nail the carbon problem but it's a start point.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

MacDoc said:


> But surely Beej if the industry is asking for caps that aspect can be divorced from the special tax treatment issue - in fact don't the two actually complement each other.


The aspects are divorced except in politics (including enviro groups that have mentioned this item). If the Conservatives want to do nothing for GHGs but call it something, my suggestion is a good way to appeal to a broader audience. 

If they actually want to do something, that's another matter, but the tax change could still be a part of a "greening the tax code" strategy. Either way, low-hanging fruit.

Ideally, the tax treatment would be extended to all companies, but that's another matter.


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

I keep getting mail to a previous occupant from the Liberal Party. The latest fundraiser letter from Bill Graham is delightful in its naive writing style. Some excerpts:

"It's a victorious day for Canadians!"
.....

"We have been tireless in promoting Canadian values in Parliament--in the face of a Minority Conservative Government whose overconfidence is growing more and more difficult for Canadians to understand, much less respect."

....

"You are already seeing the beginning of a carefully orchestrated, and expensive, stream of noxious messages emanating from Stephen Harper's right-wing organizers. It will turn uglier, I promise you. Please make your gift now..."

....

"...we know how to clean house and we have the Leader who can do it."

I wonder which members of the Liberal party are still waiting to be "cleaned out."


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## daBoss (Jun 20, 2003)

SINC said:


> Somehow it figures that it will be a guy from Quebec who will cause the resurrection of western separatism with regressive oil policies.


Alberta emits more greenhouse gases than any other province, with oil and gas production across Canada accounting for about 20 per cent of the country's total emissions, according to a new report from the Pembina Institute, an Alberta-based environmental group.

Pierre Alvarez, president of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers, said a carbon tax is a "crude" instrument that his group has always rejected. *However, Dion's proposal of a carbon market is one of many options worth pursuing as industry looks to cut its emissions.*

"It should be one of a series of flexibility mechanisms that should be available to companies if they're required to true up to targets of one form or another," Alvarez said.

"We would want to make sure we have a full suite of options," he added, noting the development of new technologies, "because each company is going to have a different approach."

Gee, so the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers considers this plan a viable option that is "worth pursuing" but you turn it into a potential western (read Alberta) separatist threat. That's the precise problem with the nature of Alberta politics. It's ALWAYS us against them. It's so easy to point fingers. Much more difficult to sit around the table and discuss viable options and solutions to the issues at hand. Yelling and threatening outsiders gets votes. Calling Albertans that happen to have a different perspective or opinion 'un-Albertan" also gets votes.

It does not, however, address the real threats to our environment right here in Alberta. The goal is unfettered extraction of our dwindling natural resources at maximum financial gain as soon as possible to benefit this generation with no regard to the generations that follow. Even our premier-designate has said there will be "no brakes" applied to the industry.

Few in Alberta tend to think about the long term ramifications of rapid extraction of our oil reserves. Very little attention is given to our water, air and soil conditions vis-a-vis the oil sands, not to mention other oil sectors and other resources. Rushing to get the oil out of the ground today at $60+ per barrel leaves precious little for future generations to benefit from at what will inevitably be substantially higher prices with, hopefully, far less environmental costs. Failure to manage the resource extraction now will result in Alberta becoming Oklahoma north.

*Truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it.
*- Flannery O'Connor, writer (1925-1964)

*In our every deliberation, we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations.
*- Iroquois Nation Maxim


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

daBoss said:


> *Truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it.
> *- Flannery O'Connor, writer (1925-1964)
> 
> *In our every deliberation, we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations.
> ...


Good thoughtful post.

I like the quotes and signature, ideas I wish our society heeded more. People who call themselves conservatives often seem to be behind plans to blow the inheritance leaving little or nothing for future generations.


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## daBoss (Jun 20, 2003)

Thank you. Always nice to receive a little affirmation.


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## Dreambird (Jan 24, 2006)

http://www.pembina.org/pdf/publications/OSF_Fact72.pdf

http://www.oilsandswatch.org/media-room/projector.php?slide=index


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Excellent post DaBoss - you and Dreambird are surely welcome voices in my view. :clap:


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## Max (Sep 26, 2002)

One of the many things I like about Flannery O'Connor is her apt choice of phrasing. In _Wise Blood,_ of her novels, the narrator continually refers to "a high, rat-colored car." That kills me. It's deeply odd yet in the context of the story, it's perfect.


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

"Those rat-colored oil sands."


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## Max (Sep 26, 2002)

OK, thanks to the 'subtle' poke, we're back at oil sands. I think we'll see more and more West-based environmentalists as the years go by. That can only be a good thing. We need to strike a balance between propelling the country's economy along and taking a stake in the planet's sustainability.


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

Max we can only hope.

Last time I checked conservative was based on conservation.

Anyone read the articles on Liberaltarians.?
The GOP has a serious problem on it's spendthrift, ecologically unsound hands.

http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=6800


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## imactheknife (Aug 7, 2003)

SINC said:


> You got that right PenguinBoy!
> 
> “EDMONTON - Premier-designate Ed Stelmach said he has no intention of trying to slow down the growth of oilsands development in northern Alberta.”
> 
> ...



I guess money talks and BULL S*!T walks....I hate this attitude people have with money....sounds like Bush talking...great...shows money is evil....


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## PenguinBoy (Aug 16, 2005)

Max said:


> I think we'll see more and more West-based environmentalists as the years go by.


There are already quite a few of them - for evidence of this, consider the relatively high level of support for the Green Party in the last election - according to Wikipedia (which I just updated to back up my claim,  ) their support in Alberta was the highest in the country at 6.6%.

In Calgary Centre they picked up ~12% of the vote which was one of their best showings. They also finished ahead of the Liberals and NDP in Wild Rose, and ahead of the NDP in Calgary West - even though the NDP spent ~15x as much on their campaign in this riding.
(references: 
http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/a....asp?Language=E&Search=Det&Include=Y&rid=1429 
http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/a...r.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&Include=Y&rid=975 
http://www.parl.gc.ca/information/a...r.asp?Language=E&Search=Det&Include=Y&rid=104)


Max said:


> That can only be a good thing. We need to strike a balance between propelling the country's economy along and taking a stake in the planet's sustainability.


Amen - preach it brother!


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

So if you do the math and apply it to the total population of Alberta, you got what? 1% Green party support? Impressive indeed.


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

Betaing the NDP is no great prize! Any ideology beats a bankrupt ideology.


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## daBoss (Jun 20, 2003)

SINC said:


> So if you do the math and apply it to the total population of Alberta, you got what? 1% Green party support? Impressive indeed.


What part of "*... Alberta was the highest in the country at 6.6%*." don't you get? Are you factoring in the apathetic non-voters to arrive at 1%? If so, then any and all of your political calculations must reflects what I'll call "Sinc's convenient new math and statistics designed to skew reality in the 'right' direction".

Sinc, one can ONLY count those who vote. Simple really. No fuzzy logic required.


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

daBoss said:


> What part of "*... Alberta was the highest in the country at 6.6%*." don't you get? Are you factoring in the apathetic non-voters to arrive at 1%? If so, then any and all of your political calculations must reflects what I'll call "Sinc's convenient new math and statistics designed to skew reality in the 'right' direction".
> 
> Sinc, one can ONLY count those who vote. Simple really. No fuzzy logic required.


The part I don't get is how you can possibly put any stock in Wikipedia? Any nut case can add bad data to tilt the percentile in your favour.

Fuzzy logic would appear to be in YOUR court.


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## martman (May 5, 2005)

PenguinBoy said:


> There are already quite a few of them - for evidence of this, consider the relatively high level of support for the Green Party in the last election - according to Wikipedia (which I just updated to back up my claim,  ) their support in Alberta was the highest in the country at 6.6%.
> 
> In Calgary Centre they picked up ~12% of the vote which was one of their best showings. They also finished ahead of the Liberals and NDP in Wild Rose, and ahead of the NDP in Calgary West - even though the NDP spent ~15x as much on their campaign in this riding.
> (references:
> ...






SINC said:


> The part I don't get is how you can possibly put any stock in Wikipedia? Any nut case can add bad data to tilt the percentile in your favour.
> 
> Fuzzy logic would appear to be in YOUR court.


These links appear to be gov't of Canada links not wikkipedia. Am I missing something here?
I suppose SINC didn't look at the links!
:lmao:


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## Krasnol (Nov 14, 2006)

*Good Choice*

I think Dion is a good choice for the liberal leader, he is an educated man with a solid platform and keeps things professional.
:clap: :clap:


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## PenguinBoy (Aug 16, 2005)

martman said:


> SINC said:
> 
> 
> > The part I don't get is how you can possibly put any stock in Wikipedia? Any nut case can add bad data to tilt the percentile in your favour.
> ...


The links I provided were official Government links for individual ridings, the 6.6% overall Green Party support in Alberta from Wikipedia should be easy enough to verify from other sources. I made the tongue in cheek comment about editing Wikipedia to back up my 6.6% number, although in practice I find it to be just as good most other references and better than some.

My original point is that there is a fair amount of grassroots support for environmental protection in Alberta, even if the rest of the "progressive agenda" doesn't resonate with many people out here.

Obviously environmental protection needs to be balanced against the need for a healthy economy - but I believe that well thought out, long term environmental policies would get widespread popular acceptance here.

On the other hand, an ill conceived, heavy handed "Made in Ottawa" solution would obviously not go over well, just look at how the Liberals are *still* shut out of Alberta 25 years after the NEP...


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

PenguinBoy said:


> My original point is that there is a fair amount of grassroots support for environmental protection in Alberta, even if the rest of the "progressive agenda" doesn't resonate with many people out here.


Agreed.



PenguinBoy said:


> Obviously environmental protection needs to be balanced against the need for a healthy economy - but I believe that well thought out, long term environmental policies would get widespread popular acceptance here.


Agreed.



PenguinBoy said:


> On the other hand, an ill conceived, heavy handed "Made in Ottawa" solution would obviously not go over well, just look at how the Liberals are *still* shut out of Alberta 25 years after the NEP...


You can bet you sweet a$$ on that one.


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## daBoss (Jun 20, 2003)

SINC said:


> The part I don't get is how you can possibly put any stock in Wikipedia? Any nut case can add bad data to tilt the percentile in your favour.
> 
> Fuzzy logic would appear to be in YOUR court.



Then try CPAC
http://www.cpac.ca/forms/index.asp?dsp=template&act=view3&template_id=840&lang=e


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

PenguinBoy said:


> Obviously environmental protection needs to be balanced against the need for a healthy economy - but I believe that well thought out, long term environmental policies would get widespread popular acceptance here.
> 
> On the other hand, an ill conceived, heavy handed "Made in Ottawa" solution would obviously not go over well, just look at how the Liberals are *still* shut out of Alberta 25 years after the NEP...


Yes balance is important. But I hope no one is underestimating the threat potential of global warming and thinking it's just a matter of a little tweaking here and there, while we carry on blowing around town in our Hummers. The amount of planned increase to Alberta's oil sands extraction is folly, in my opinion.

The attachment is a picture of Victoria BC from Google Earth. The red portion shows where the shoreline would be under a 6 metre sea level rise. It's probably a good bet we won't escape that level within 100 years or less because an estimated 2 degree global temperature rise would create that much. 6 metres is the conservative estimate.

The blue area shows the flooding if the sea level was raised by 25 metres. 75 percent of Victoria and 100 percent of Sidney BC gets flooded. This could be the medium to worst case scenario and involves the melting of the Greenland ice sheet as well as West Antarctic Ice sheet. This is a potential. This could happen if global warming gets multiplied by massive methane release that a greater than 2 degree temperature rise might trigger. No one can really say, at this point, but it is definitely a risk.

For those who might be tempted to think we could just adapt to this or don't care because they don't live near a body of water, think about what happens when this kind of flooding is applied to all the coastal cities and towns around the world. The potential for economic disaster is huge.

Balance is good and we don't want to hurt anyone in the short term, but how do we balance the huge economic and human consequences of even the 6 metre scenario? I think our society is being far too complacent about this while the clock keeps ticking. The longer we dither and worry about short term pain, the less time we have to avoid some big long term pain. Worry about the NEP or the Liberal Party fortunes don't seem to add up to hill of beans in that regard.


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## GratuitousApplesauce (Jan 29, 2004)

The picture for Vancouver looks much worse. It only shows the 6 metre scenario and that completely floods Richmond, Delta, and Coquitlam. Not pretty.

I wonder how Toronto looks, or Montreal or NYC?


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## Max (Sep 26, 2002)

GratuitousApplesauce said:


> Worry about the NEP or the Liberal Party fortunes don't seem to add up to hill of beans in that regard.


But which party gets elected has everything to do with how rapidly (or how slowly) the powers that be prepare for the changes hurtling at us. Seems to me politics matters more than ever. On the face of it, you're right, but on the other hand we need to elect leaders who 'get' our concerns and are willing to work with the populace (rather than obstruct them in favour of supporting retrograde corporate influences lurking behind the scenes).


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## PenguinBoy (Aug 16, 2005)

Max said:


> ...we need to elect leaders who 'get' our concerns and are willing to work with the populace (rather than obstruct them in favour of supporting retrograde corporate influences lurking behind the scenes).


It's not just the corporate influences, we as individuals need to change our behaviour as well - perhaps by trading gas guzzling minivans for TDI wagons, for example. It's pretty easy to bash corporate influences, and no doubt they need to make some changes, but they aren't the only ones trashing the environment


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

Nuclear weapons detonated deep underground will raise coastlines all over the world. 
This is my protest over the continuitation of the Dion/GHG thread. If you don't watch it, this will become the SSM Dion GHG thread.


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## Max (Sep 26, 2002)

PenguinBoy, at this point I'd like to personally disavow any personal responsibility for any environmental problems the world is now plagued by and, for that matter, any future calamities it may suffer. No, the corporate world is entirely to blame and it must be stressed that individuals, being intrinsically innocent, are therefore free of blame. I hope we are clear on this matter.

MacFury: If by causing nuclear explosion deep underground we also blast loose a whole sea of previously undiscovered oil, then perhaps we can hope that we find a way of harnessing energy from that irradiated oil. We can but hope.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

Max said:


> If by causing nuclear explosion deep underground we also blast loose a whole sea of previously undiscovered oil


Something like this was actually proposed once. I'm not sure how far the idea got.


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## Macfury (Feb 3, 2006)

I actually saw a documentary on this very topic called "The Core." 

Strangely, the documentary starred Hillary Swank.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

http://www.bbc.co.uk/dna/h2g2/alabaster/A685109

No Swank, but even wilder ideas than Core.


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## Max (Sep 26, 2002)

MF, it's a stretch to call that movie a documentary. A very big stretch.

But listen - if Hollywood made a film on the subject, then obviously there's a ton of hard science supporting the idea.


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