# Real time iPad sales



## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

As estimated by Chitika (an on-line ad agency).

iPad Stats

Looks reasonably accurate and likely causing all sorts of indigestion for the iPad haters. Wait till Canada (and 3G models) come on-line.


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## fyrefly (Apr 16, 2005)

That's a really neat page, thanks for that link.

And yeah, the people who called the iPad a flop are probably having to eat a little crow right now .


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

who would be dumb enough to call the ipad a flop?


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## fjnmusic (Oct 29, 2006)

groovetube said:


> who would be dumb enough to call the ipad a flop?


Well there's this guy Why the iPad Will Flop -- Seeking Alpha , for one.


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## Guest (Apr 6, 2010)

fjnmusic said:


> Well there's this guy Why the iPad Will Flop -- Seeking Alpha , for one.


hahahahaha ... sorry. He had to actually reach for that one if he needed to compare the iPad to the Lisa.


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## fyrefly (Apr 16, 2005)

groovetube said:


> who would be dumb enough to call the ipad a flop?


Well...

http://www.ehmac.ca/ipad-apple-tablet/84843-first-gen-ipad-just-joke.html

http://www.ehmac.ca/ipad-apple-tablet/84203-no-multitasking-no-flash-video.html


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## fjnmusic (Oct 29, 2006)

Half a million after four days = not too shabby, as Bubbles would say.


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## bsenka (Jan 27, 2009)

Nobody seriously claimed the iPad would be a flop. Of course it was going to sell a lot of units. The Apple brand today means cash, regardless of wether the product is any good or not.


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## Kosh (May 27, 2002)

The problem is that alot of people are short-sighted and can't see the long-term vision for a product. They look at what the product does today with the current OS and feature set, and don't realize what it can do in the future with future features and software improvements.

The same stuff was said about the iPhone - it couldn't do this, it couldn't do that - over time Apple added to it.

All that Apple has to do is throw out a few software updates. This product has quite the future.


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## basilmunroe (Dec 21, 2006)

Well said Kosh. The iPad is an investment. I'm not buying it because it's a cool device (which it is) I'm buying it because I have well-placed faith in app developers that this is a device that won't go to waste.


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

fyrefly said:


> Well...
> 
> http://www.ehmac.ca/ipad-apple-tablet/84843-first-gen-ipad-just-joke.html
> 
> http://www.ehmac.ca/ipad-apple-tablet/84203-no-multitasking-no-flash-video.html


well... alright. I was being somewhat sarcastic.

Though I have to say, after listening to the hollering about the demise of flash, and it flopping, I'm looking forward to this... :clap:




+
YouTube Video









ERROR: If you can see this, then YouTube is down or you don't have Flash installed.


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## fyrefly (Apr 16, 2005)

bsenka said:


> Nobody seriously claimed the iPad would be a flop. Of course it was going to sell a lot of units. The Apple brand today means cash, regardless of wether the product is any good or not.


I think lots of people were serious when they claimed the iPad was gonna be a flop:

Why the iPad will Flop

US Survey Predicts Apple iPad To Be Embarrassing Flop - ITProPortal.com

iPad. Biggest. Flop. Ever. - Snowulf

Apple iPad ? The Flop 2010 Tablet

... and the list continues...

Even 
Newsweek switched its tune from disliking the iPad to liking the iPad

But now we're 1/2 a million units sold just in the US and Best Buys are sold out... wait till this thing gets released internationally...


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## Kosh (May 27, 2002)

And just to prove my point... AppleInsider | Apple adds seven major features, 100 minor features in iPhone 4.0

All those people who complained about multi-tasking can chew on crow. Did you honestly think Apple didn't have it in the works?


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

well given my 3G phone has trouble running one app sometimes because of not a whole lot of ram, running more than one should makes things run even more slowly.

How many apps do you want to run in a tiny window anyways?

ipads, I can see it.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

That's why the 3G won't be able to multi-task with iPhone OS4. Only the 3GS, iPad, latest iPod Touch and whatever they release in July. That said, the multi-tasking seems to be different from a desktop OS in that when an app is hidden, it will be severely restricted in the processes it can run. If a game, it will simply suspend. If a music app, it will stream the content, etc. The RAM footprint should be a lot less than when the app is in full flight. Still, the restriction to the latest iPhone model suggests either there is some level of hit or that Apple is pushing for people to buy new hardware....

groovetube, there is some bad news in the OS4 developer agreement. In essence, Apple is banning all compilers aside from Objective-C, C, C++, or JavaScript as executed by the iPhone OS WebKit engine (more details on Daring Fireball). This seems like a direct (and transparent) attempt to undermine all Flash and AIR-based applications since code compiled on such frameworks will be tossed by the app approval process. It's theoretically possible that there will be ways for Adobe to spit out code that looks as though it was C++ compiled, but I think devs will simply not take the risk.



groovetube said:


> well given my 3G phone has trouble running one app sometimes because of not a whole lot of ram, running more than one should makes things run even more slowly.
> 
> How many apps do you want to run in a tiny window anyways?
> 
> ipads, I can see it.


It also looks as though Chitika has re-tuned their real time estimates based on Jobs presentation today. It's come down and now they have a real datapoint, likely will be more accurate (they do detail the assumptions they have to make).


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

I haven't heard this .Link? Though, one has to wonder what happens when other mobile platforms begin to mature with more friendly developer platforms available.


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

I just read a pile of reactions to this 'rumor'. No one has confirmed this as true yet, though daring fireball, if it's anti-flash will scream really loud so you have to take anything that site says with a grain of salt. It remains to be seen, because as far I understood it, packerger spits out native objective C.

What I do see, and heard from developers, was a whoooole lotta pissed of developers. Because, this doesn't just affect flash developers. There's a number of other frameworks, beside the iphone packager, in fact the packager is actually quite late to the party (phoneGap?).

Way to go apple if this is true.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

One way to find out for sure is to register for the OS4 preview. It's in section 3.3.1 of the NDA. While John Gruber is certainly anti-Flash and pro-HTML5, it looks as though this is a determined attempt by Apple to wall-in applications developers to maintain the AppStore lead (by making it harder to code once, deploy anywhere). I can see the business perspective from Apple - grab and lock-in the current applications developers. But presumably this will cause at least two outcomes:
1. Some devs will run scared from the Apple ecosystem into Android, etc. (albeit with no guarantee of market or less restrictions in the future) not to mention leaving a lucrative market behind - one that their competitors will fill.
2. Large devs will code in Objective C/X-code and port from there to other platforms.

The latter would suit Apple in that it allows first release on the iPhone platform, much like Mac gamers have to wait for years for porting of PC games (at least they used to).

Things working against Flash include its ubiquity in annoying and intrusive adverts (prompting the use of Flash blockers) and its poor performance in Mobile devices (not to mention security issues). The latter may be resolved but if people use more blockers, it will result in less click-throughs and advertisers will drop it for other formats. Meanwhile, content producers using Flash will face a veil for their media due to the bad reputation of Flash caused by those inane ads. I think Silverlight is in the same boat.

In its favour is an established community of Flash developers and a relative ignorance among users of the conflict at hand (although, come to think of it, that ignorance works against Flash - I don't expect to see pro-Flash protests).


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

port from Obj-C to other platforms? How???

Interestingly enough, the trend is -the other way round-. Why? Because why develop for a minority platform, only to port to all the rest? Obj-C doesn't have too many uses beyond iphone/ipad dev...

The last 24 hours has been absolutely wild in the tweet/blogosphere in the developer world. The overwhelming feeling amongst developers, and surprisingly to me, many non flash developers, is extremely negative towards apple.

And I have to chuckle at the annoying adverts. Those annoying adverts are a huge source of revenue for many major sites (HULU comes to mind...) and if flash isn't used, something else will, that may not be blocked by flash blockers.

Be careful what you wish for.

Apple forcing people on HOW the apps are developed in this fashion is not going over very well in the developer community at all. Because apparently, this doesn't affect just flash developers...


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## i-rui (Sep 13, 2006)

i don't program, and know little about the ins and outs of it, but my first reaction to this news was that apple did this because compilers would naturally create bloated and inefficient code, compared to code written natively from the get go.

Would a compiled code run slower, task the processor and battery more than code written natively?

Still, i am getting a bit worried of Apples perceived fight with Adobe. The last thing i need is for Adobe to leave the mac platform. Then i'd be forced to use windows for PS **shudders**


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

i-rui said:


> i don't program, and know little about the ins and outs of it, but my first reaction to this news was that apple did this because compilers would naturally create bloated and inefficient code, compared to code written natively from the get go.
> 
> Would a compiled code run slower, task the processor and battery more than code written natively?
> 
> Still, i am getting a bit worried of Apples perceived fight with Adobe. The last thing i need is for Adobe to leave the mac platform. Then i'd be forced to use windows for PS **shudders**


not really. There's been no evidence to support this at all, and compilers are very common, certainly in the iphone's case there are quite a few out there in current use besides flash, adobe is actually quite late to the party.

But the real trouble here, is that allowing adobe this, would allow developers to build really good apps, and support android (the real problem here...) without having to rebuild from scratch. Apple has the wind in it's sails (or should that be sales ) in the app world, and adobe's packager would take a small bite out of that.

It's quite a game apple is playing here. Adobe has released a flash player that I've seen run unbelievably on a mac at 6 to 70 fps, they've been stepping up to the plate, bigtime. So amongst devs, who know what's happening, the mewling by apple is starting to make apple look like a much worse version of M$.

Now just imagine, if M$ trued to pull what apple did...

Now personally, I know more than one language and can write in obj-C. It's just a pain in the ass to have to develop in a language that has little use beyond iphone/ipad dev and can't ported in the other direction for now really.


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

The Flash Blog Apple Slaps Developers In The Face



> Now let me put aside my role as an official representative of Adobe for a moment as I would look to make it clear what is going through my mind at the moment. Go screw yourself Apple.


wow.

I read a little while ago Adobe made a corporate filing to the SEC, I don't know really what this means, but the article suggested it had something o do with adobe potentially losing a lot of money over this.

This is gonna get ugly. Real ugly. I just hope that us regular folk, are whacked in the process.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

Yes, the gloves are off. While everyone was watching Apple spar with Google, Apple opened a second front with Adobe. The SEC filing is always a worst case scenario document. No need to worry about that (Apple has to state that Android is a threat, etc). However, Adobe has clearly reacted with passion and, to me, that smacks of panic. If they were smart, they'd keep their powder dry. There are lots of options. Apple isn't playing with their Flash ball but they have other balls too.

Apple took away with one hand and gave with another - yesterdays audience was primarily developers not the consumers (although it was also a land grab for attention of the business community and stockholders). Application developers (not web developers) now have direct access to another revenue stream through iAps with Apple doing the lifting. I think that will easily attract/retain more developers than what they'll lose. Right now, developers likely have to cross-compile because each market isn't big enough (or they are too big). That will change so that each eco-system achieves critical mass. But the bottom line for developers is that they will follow the money. For all of the "freedom and democracy" purported to reside at Google, if there is no money in developing apps for Android, they won't go there. 

I've no idea about how you'd compile Objective C code into anything else. I understand that the cross-compilers run in their own language and step-down to the device-dependent languages. That does make them inherently less effective as they are not designed from the top down to take advantage of the particular nuances of each language to the degree native coding does. 

As for Flash ad blocking - I wasn't wishing for anything. I'm happy with the status quo but it does reduce my awareness of and affinity for Flash-based web sites. I just can't be bothered with them so I skip them. More people with that attitude undermines the value of Flash.


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## fyrefly (Apr 16, 2005)

Well Apple is saying that their refusal to support flash compiled apps is because they are working some under the hood mojo to make multitasking work in iPhone os 4 and they need the objective C code to make sure every app plays along nicely with their under the hood stuff. 

AppleInsider | Apple's prohibition of Flash-built apps in iPhone 4.0 related to multitasking


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

fyrefly said:


> Well Apple is saying that their refusal to support flash compiled apps is because they are working some under the hood mojo to make multitasking work in iPhone os 4 and they need the objective C code to make sure every app plays along nicely with their under the hood stuff.
> 
> AppleInsider | Apple's prohibition of Flash-built apps in iPhone 4.0 related to multitasking


ha ha ha ha. I have some swamp land in florida you can buy....

I'm sure apple might want to do some damage control as far as the developers are concerned, but I'll bet the devs who understand this ain't gonna buy this crap.


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## vfr (Jul 22, 2009)

From a developer on the other side of the fence:

I'm happy with and support Apple's no Flash stance. Why don't I like Flash?

1) Open up several tabs with web sites with Flash content. Look at your CPU usage. WTF?

2) Flash is mainly a delivery vehicle for advertising. I absolutely despise modern advertising. I no longer watch TV because I hate being bludgeoned over the head with constant, mindless, repetitive ads trying to sell me stuff I do not want or need. I barely listen to radio in the car for the same reason. Thank Apple for iPod and iTunes and podcasting in general.

3) Constantly having to keep Flash and Adobe Reader up-to-date because of security holes. Every time someone I know gets hit with malware on Windows, it is through one of those two Adobe products. And out-of-date Java runtimes is another culprit here.

Forcing Developers to use Objective-C, C and/or C++ to develop iPhone OS apps.

This too I welcome. With open arms. There is no way that a cross-platform development environment can take advantage of each platforms features. You end up with lowest-common denominator feature support. In other words, cross-platform development environment apps are of poor quality on every platform. The App Store already has thousands of poor quality apps - we do not need any more thank you very much.


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

vfr said:


> From a developer on the other side of the fence:
> 
> I'm happy with and support Apple's no Flash stance. Why don't I like Flash?
> 
> ...


There's no way to cross platform develop? There's a massive development community out there that will disagree with that statement.


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## Guest (Apr 10, 2010)

groovetube said:


> ha ha ha ha. I have some swamp land in florida you can buy....
> 
> I'm sure apple might want to do some damage control as far as the developers are concerned, but I'll bet the devs who understand this ain't gonna buy this crap.


If you don't believe that one I think you've just put _your_ foot in your mouth. That is a 100% valid reason to prohibit runtimes. Me thinks you need to do a little more reading on how they've implemented multitasking in iPhone OS 4.0 and get fully informed on this topic before you continue to fling barbs. It's not just adobe that's being burnt here, it's ALL runtime environments. It sucks yes, but it's not just about apple being anti-adobe, it's about being able to do what needs to happen with their platform. Get over it.


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

mguertin said:


> If you don't believe that one I think you've just put _your_ foot in your mouth. That is a 100% valid reason to prohibit runtimes. Me thinks you need to do a little more reading on how they've implemented multitasking in iPhone OS 4.0 and get fully informed on this topic before you continue to fling barbs. It's not just adobe that's being burnt here, it's ALL runtime environments. It sucks yes, but it's not just about apple being anti-adobe, it's about being able to do what needs to happen with their platform. Get over it.


Hmmm. If you read the thread, many of us actual hard core developers who code in actionscript 3 AND objective C are questioning this. The debate is raging, and it isn't clear yet if this is a 100% valid reason. Perhaps I need more kool-aid???

And if you read my other thread, I have made it extremely clear, that everyone knows this isn't just anti-adobe.


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## i-rui (Sep 13, 2006)

so what about apps that have already been compiled with 3rd party compilers that are currently in the appstore (i'm sure there's a ton)

would they not be able to properly run under os 4?


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

That's my question, as well as many others. There are already many compilers out there, adobe is actually late to the party.

I saw a few of them in action (such as phonegap) in action at a mobile developers conference I attended last year.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

I see Apple is releasing the AppStore testing application to developers for OS4. This should help in reducing the iterative time delays. It should also allow devs to refine their code to help ensure it passes Apple's muster.


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## Guest (Apr 10, 2010)

groovetube said:


> That's my question, as well as many others. There are already many compilers out there, adobe is actually late to the party.
> 
> I saw a few of them in action (such as phonegap) in action at a mobile developers conference I attended last year.


Yep, lots of game engines too, a friend just spent a good deal of time getting comfortable with Unity and she has a handful of good games ready to release. She's not happy about this to say the least!


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## i-rui (Sep 13, 2006)

so all those previously compiled apps will have to be updated to run on os 4?

that's a lot of work.


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## Mckitrick (Dec 25, 2005)

I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords...


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

Presumably not since there are plenty of apps in the AppStore that aren't yet OS3 compliant. Of course, you could make new apps just compatible for OS 3.2 but you can bet that 99% of 3GS owners will update to OS4 and obviously all new devices will have it standard, so if you want to compete with apps that are OS4 friendly (i.e will multi-task and take advantage of OS4 features), it'll mean major rewrites (inc. from ground up in some cases). Whether developers will do this will depend on their business model, the amount of work, etc. Apple has previously strongly recommended developers use Objective C, etc. but are now enforcing it.



i-rui said:


> so all those previously compiled apps will have to be updated to run on os 4?
> 
> that's a lot of work.


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

i-rui said:


> so all those previously compiled apps will have to be updated to run on os 4?
> 
> that's a lot of work.


There's whole lot unclear here. I'm a developer, and I can't make sense of half of it. The reasons Apple gave seem off. Android is true multitasking yet, somehow there's no problem there... for some reason.

I think Apple is really throwing the dice here. The only way they are going to win here, is if they really hit a home run on the mobile platform. It's really segregating the developer community into Apple developers, and, the other ones. As long as the app store presents itself as the most lucrative option (which it has, so far), there ill be plenty of developers. BUT, if the other mobile platforms begin to catch up, like android, and there is a gold rush to be had there yet, being able to create apps for 4 different platforms, and then having to recreate pretty much from scratch an app that may or may not even be accepted much less sell. Is this sustainable for a developer community?

I don't have a crystal ball.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

Looks like the momentum has slowed considerably this week - no sales at night!! iPad Stats - Chitika Labs


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## CubaMark (Feb 16, 2001)

Apple is officially delaying the international launch of the iPad by a month, due to ridiculously high demand...



> Although we have delivered more than 500,000 iPads during its first week, demand is far higher than we predicted and will likely continue to exceed our supply over the next several weeks as more people see and touch an iPad™. We have also taken a large number of pre-orders for iPad 3G models for delivery by the end of April.
> 
> Faced with this surprisingly strong US demand, we have made the difficult decision to postpone the international launch of iPad by one month, until the end of May. We will announce international pricing and begin taking online pre-orders on Monday, May 10. We know that many international customers waiting to buy an iPad will be disappointed by this news, but we hope they will be pleased to learn the reason—the iPad is a runaway success in the US thus far.


(Apple Media Advisory)


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

sounds like a bit of pre planned media hype to me...


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## fyrefly (Apr 16, 2005)

groovetube said:


> sounds like a bit of pre planned media hype to me...


I dunno, if Chitka's numbers are on point, that means apple could be on track for almost a million units sold within just over 2 weeks. 

And analysts said they would have about 250,000 units on hand for launch day. Many Brick and Mortar Apple Stores are OOS, especially on the Low-end 16GB models, Bestbuy B&M stores are sold out, MacMall will only let you phone order (who knows how long till shipping), and the Apple Online Store in the US will let you order, but shipping is delayed 5-7 Business Days. 

Are you seriously saying that Apple is making up the demand for this product? To launch internationally, I bet they'd have to have a cabal of about 1-1.5 million devices minimum, and ideally almost 2.5 Million devices, as the international launch is for 9 Countries - Germany, Australia, France, Great Britain, Japan, Italy, Canada, Switzerland and Spain - so even 1 million units would leave just over 100,000 per country on launch day, where are 2.5 Million units would give them the same ~250,000 they had in the US on launch day.

Considering they've had trouble keeping up demand for less than 1 million units over 2 weeks that it's been on sale in the US... I'd say themhaving trouble coming up with another 1-2 million units in stockpile for an international launch isn't a stretch and isn't just media hype. But that's just MHO.


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## groovetube (Jan 2, 2003)

no, I never said they were "making up demand at all". 

You need to learn to read my friend.

I was, and I'm quite sure many others were, quite certain the sales would go through the roof on this. Surely Apple knew this too.

But saying you're all sold out and oh my god we have no more! sure makes for a good news storey! I'm not saying apple is evil for this, just saying.


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