# Whose Buying Tim Horton's Stock?



## overkill (May 15, 2005)

Anyone out there going to be picking up some? Looks like the IPO which is scheduled for Thursday is going to looking at a 20-22$ opening value.


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## DoNotPokeTheScreen (Jun 9, 2005)

I am.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

In a regulatory filing in the United States, the company said the new range will be between $25 and $27 per share ($22 to $24 US). The IPO was initially priced between $21 and $23 per share.


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## overkill (May 15, 2005)

Dr.G. said:


> In a regulatory filing in the United States, the company said the new range will be between $25 and $27 per share ($22 to $24 US). The IPO was initially priced between $21 and $23 per share.


Still within purchase range


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## SINC (Feb 16, 2001)

overkill said:


> Still within purchase range


Much too high a price to pay for "swill".

Count me out.


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## DoNotPokeTheScreen (Jun 9, 2005)

I'm counting on THI to get me my next Mac :lmao:


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## overkill (May 15, 2005)

DoNotPokeTheScreen said:


> I'm counting on THI to get me my next Mac :lmao:


hmmmm...i like your thought process


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## JumboJones (Feb 21, 2001)

DoNotPokeTheScreen said:


> I'm counting on THI to get me my next Mac :lmao:


Goodluck, but unless they include Macs as a prize in a roll up the rim contest, I don't think that will be happening too soon!


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## guytoronto (Jun 25, 2005)

Good luck getting any stock. Your average Jane and Joe have a next to 0% chance of grabbing this stock on the open market when the IPO is launched.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Spoke to an owner of three Tim Horton's here in NL and he said that $21 to $23 was a good price and represented the possibility of upward gains. He felt that $25 to $27 per share takes into account this upward gain, and leaves little room for much upward gain. Still, as we both contend, for the long term investor, this is a fine stock. I bought 700 shares of Shoppers Drug Mart for just over $18 a share after it opened and pulled back soon after the initial flurry of activity. I still have those shares and will continue to hold them because I believe in and use SDM.


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## iMatt (Dec 3, 2004)

guytoronto said:


> Good luck getting any stock. Your average Jane and Joe have a next to 0% chance of grabbing this stock on the open market when the IPO is launched.


Sure they'll be able to get it on the open market...the problem is that they won't be able to get it at the IPO price. They'll be paying a hefty premium instead, and the lucky few who were in on the IPO will clean up.


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## DoNotPokeTheScreen (Jun 9, 2005)

Royal bank no longer take orders for Tim Horton's IPO, because it has been over subscribed.


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## overkill (May 15, 2005)

Could be the Google stock of Canada! But doubtful...


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## rgray (Feb 15, 2005)

overkill said:


> Whose Buying Tim Horton's Stock?


That's "who's" not "whose".... as in "who is". "whose" implies current possession. Can you tell I'm grading right now...????


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## gastonbuffet (Sep 23, 2004)

Tim Hortons will never amount to Anything in the States. Mark my words. And that illusion is what all expectations are riding on.
Now, buying stock at $23 today will be a mistake, unless you sell it within less than 2 weeks, because after that it wil go back to $ 23, and then, it will slowly decrease in value in the long run. Price in December 2007: $ 19.87

talk about going out on a limb!!!!! But that's why i get paid THE BIG BUCKS! 

freebie for all ehmacers


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## overkill (May 15, 2005)

rgray said:


> That's "who's" not "whose".... as in "who is". "whose" implies current possession. Can you tell I'm grading right now...????


Why I remember this feeling of failure for some reason


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

gastonbuffet said:


> Tim Hortons will never amount to Anything in the States. Mark my words. And that illusion is what all expectations are riding on.
> Now, buying stock at $23 today will be a mistake, unless you sell it within less than 2 weeks, because after that it wil go back to $ 23, and then, it will slowly decrease in value in the long run. Price in December 2007: $ 19.87
> 
> talk about going out on a limb!!!!! But that's why i get paid THE BIG BUCKS!
> ...


What earnings growth assumption is $19.87 based on?


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## gastonbuffet (Sep 23, 2004)

well, as i want to keep getting the BIG BUCKS, i'm not telling. 

but it's on record for all not to loose money on swill!! (thanks Sinc for the word of the day, in argentina we call it " umbrella's juice".


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## DoNotPokeTheScreen (Jun 9, 2005)

gastonbuffet said:


> Now, buying stock at $23 today will be a mistake, unless you sell it within less than 2 weeks, because after that it wil go back to $ 23



Buy it today, sell it in 2 weeks. Make big money in 2 weeks. How is that a mistake?


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## MacDoc (Nov 3, 2001)

> The company said Buffalo is its most successful U.S. market with 48 standard restaurants open at the close of 2005, and 56 stores in all of Western New York. Average annual sales at its Buffalo outlets is $1.5 million, more than double that of $700,000 in 1998 when there were a dozen Hortons' stores locally.


I've been buying Tim's in Buffalo for years and I notice the price points are the same in Canada and US = better profitability.

Tim's has incredibly good management and it's a good fit with Wendy's. Tim's franchise program is a model of how franchisor/franchisee relationships should work and it's geared to keeping the good people involved by disallowing speculative selling of the stores.

Whether the P/E is justified in the short term I think Tim's is already a success in the US and will simply build on it.

I'm normally with GB on Canadians doing well in the US market ( CanTire face planted big time ) but I think Tim's has the management and model to do well by engaging local ownership with a proven model.

All they have to do is populate the snowbird's main routes initially ala Cracker Barrel and they have a built in buyer base.

..oh yeah ...the US has lots more cops


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## iMatt (Dec 3, 2004)

DoNotPokeTheScreen said:


> Buy it today, sell it in 2 weeks. Make big money in 2 weeks. How is that a mistake?


It's just fine if you can buy it today for the offering price...and IF you can make the right decision as to when to sell. What if you make your quick buck and the stock keeps rising? What if you buy at $30 and it drifts around that level for months or years? Not too likely, I suppose, but a possibility.

But how are you going to buy it today at the IPO price? Unless you made your arrangements ages ago and are a high-roller, the answer is that you are not buying it anywhere near the offering price today. You will have to wait until some of the initial buyers put their shares on the open market, and you and thousands of people like you will drive the price up as you try to get in on the frenzy. Don't be surprised if it hits $40 by the end of the day.


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## i<3myiBookg4 (Mar 17, 2006)

I'm not getting any.


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## gastonbuffet (Sep 23, 2004)

i<3myiBookg4 said:


> I'm not getting any.


brush your hair

clip those nails

oghhhh , have a mint.....and shower for god all mighty.


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## i<3myiBookg4 (Mar 17, 2006)

gastonbuffet said:


> brush your hair
> 
> clip those nails
> 
> oghhhh , have a mint.....and shower for god all mighty.


At first I was like "What?" but then I clued in... good one! Funny... I am a virgin though to be honest. LOL!


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## iMatt (Dec 3, 2004)

So, anybody jumping in this morning @ $38+ ? Any predictions on how high it will go before the day is over?


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## rgray (Feb 15, 2005)

iMatt said:


> So, anybody jumping in this morning @ $38+ ? Any predictions on how high it will go before the day is over?


More importantly, any prediction as to how low it will be by the end of next week? month?..... There is thought that Timmy (always reminds me of the South Park Timmy - "Timmy!!!!" ;-} ) may run into more competition than planned on with this US expansion.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

The same thing happened with Shopper's Drug Mart stock. IPO was $19, it shot up to the mid-20s, and then, after a few weeks, actually came down to almost $17 as those who were onwers of Shopper's stores and were able to get stock for $9, dumped this stock. I started buying at $17 up to about $20, and now the stock is in the mid-40s.


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## i<3myiBookg4 (Mar 17, 2006)

Dr.G. said:


> The same thing happened with Shopper's Drug Mart stock. IPO was $19, it shot up to the mid-20s, and then, after a few weeks, actually came down to almost $17 as those who were onwers of Shopper's stores and were able to get stock for $9, dumped this stock. I started buying at $17 up to about $20, and now the stock is in the mid-40s.


Good for you! I might get into stocks later but for right now... nope.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

I tend to buy stocks in companies or products I use and understand. Bought some Apple stock after I bought my Apple IIe back in July, 1983.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

The TH stock seemed to bounce between $33 and $38, and is near the low end of this range with about 1/2 to go in the TSX today. This is still a "bump" from the IPO price of $27. My broker called me to suggest that I short THI once it hits $35 and buy it back to replace the stock I sold to short the stock. Since I was not in the position to buy 1000 shares, this was not worth my time, but a fine way for a broker to make some money on commissions.


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## DoNotPokeTheScreen (Jun 9, 2005)

This THI isn't so much of a "swill", is it now? Jumped 22% on the first day.

Sell it right now and you get to keep that 22%. Don't sell it and you may make more, or lose it.


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## iMatt (Dec 3, 2004)

DoNotPokeTheScreen said:


> This THI isn't so much of a "swill", is it now? Jumped 22% on the first day.


A one-day spike says nothing about the fundamental value of a stock. It may prove to be a blue-chip stock in the long run, but right now it's a speculative gamble based on emotion and hype. The kind of game best left to pros and those with money to burn; in most cases, the latter line the pockets of the former.



> Sell it right now and you get to keep that 22%. Don't sell it and you may make more, or lose it.


Who is the "you" keeping a 22% gain (minus brokerage fees and capital gains tax) by selling now? Again, I seriously doubt there are many (if any) average retail investors among that "you." The investors who bought early in the morning at a 40% premium are probably more typical of ordinary folks. These people have no choice but to wait. How long? Nobody knows. It's even possible (albeit unlikely) that the stock will never again reach its top price of $38.

However, many ordinary people did benefit from the stampede to Tim's stock: people who own mutual funds that were able to buy THI at the official IPO price. I'm probably one of those people, so I do hope THI does well. I just won't gamble on it directly.


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## sdm688 (Dec 12, 2004)

I was "lucky" enough to have an allotment of 100 shares at IPO price of $27. Sold it as soon as I got it. I believe the sold price was $37.


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## overkill (May 15, 2005)

interested to see how the stocks will perform this week after the IPO.


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## comprehab (May 28, 2005)

I am personally going to keep away. I have been watching the stock closely and i don't see anything exciting. TH will only gain if they go south of the boarder. TH has tried to infiltrate the US a few times before and it was a no go. I would like to see them succeed but TH coffee doesn't go well with americans.


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## DoNotPokeTheScreen (Jun 9, 2005)

iMatt said:


> A one-day spike says nothing about the fundamental value of a stock. It may prove to be a blue-chip stock in the long run, but right now it's a speculative gamble based on emotion and hype. The kind of game best left to pros and those with money to burn; in most cases, the latter line the pockets of the former.
> 
> 
> 
> ...



Hey iMatt, who the hell cares if the stock is a blue-chip? I don't. *AS LONG AS THE STOCK MAKES ME MONEY I BUY, AND I SELL*

As for the what is the "you"... The "you" is actually ME. I buy and I sell in one day. I HAVE done that. It's called trading, not investing. The 22% return? Yes, you get 22% return, minus the initial transaction fees when I buy the stock. So if you want to be technical, it's 22% - 30 dollars or so.


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## iMatt (Dec 3, 2004)

DoNotPokeTheScreen said:


> Hey iMatt, who the hell cares if the stock is a blue-chip? I don't. *AS LONG AS THE STOCK MAKES ME MONEY I BUY, AND I SELL*
> 
> As for the what is the "you"... The "you" is actually ME. I buy and I sell in one day. I HAVE done that. It's called trading, not investing. The 22% return? Yes, you get 22% return, minus the initial transaction fees when I buy the stock. So if you want to be technical, it's 22% - 30 dollars or so.


Let's not get personal, OK?

I was under the impression that you were implying that anybody could have bought at $27 on Friday morning. I apologize if I was wrong about that. 

So, if you're at ease making speculative plays, good on you. And good for you if you were able to snag some shares at the IPO price. Neither of those things was clear (to me) before.


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## DoNotPokeTheScreen (Jun 9, 2005)

iMatt said:


> Let's not get personal, OK?
> 
> I was under the impression that you were implying that anybody could have bought at $27 on Friday morning. I apologize if I was wrong about that.
> 
> So, if you're at ease making speculative plays, good on you. And good for you if you were able to snag some shares at the IPO price. Neither of those things was clear (to me) before.


LOL, yeah very sorry about that. I didn't mean to appear to be that aggressive. :/
I guess that's what happens to you when you're stressed from writing essays and then get an email from a director of a volunteering program that you're a part of, b*tching at you for not attending a freakin' meeting... I have dedicated more than 10 weeks at a public school teaching a bunch of kids (good thing they're a lovely bunch) for ZERO dollars... and they call me "unprofessional" and it is "unacceptable" for missing that meeting. :/ whatever dude.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

I just spoke to someone who was convinced by his broker to buy 1000 shares of Tim Horton's at $37.50 in the aftermarket free-for-all at it ran up to almost $38. Needless to say, he is livid, as it currently under $31 this morning.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

Over-subscribed IPOs, especially those associated with "brand names" typically screw the little guy in the short term. DrG, your own brokers advice to short Timmies was spot on since thats the only way to access the "popularity tax" that such IPOs cost the average investor - the bigger investment companies know this. Of course, anyone who shorted Google took a soaking.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Jim, I didn't have the money to short TH, and I am not inclined to buy now. My stock holdings are limited to Fortis, Shoppers Drug Mart, Cognos and Esprit Energy Trust.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

Beats me Dr.G., my stock holdings comprise 15 Oxo cubes.....


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Jim, I am one that is focused upon getting out of all bank debt (e.g., mortgages, loans, etc) and building up my RRSP and outside holdings as much as possible, and working until I am forced to stop. This is the only way I am able to foresee being able to meet the future with any sort of confidence, in that I have no faith in pensions controlled by others.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

I should have clarified my position. I don't trade personal stock in companies but my pension (HOOP) and RRSP contributions are invested in the stock market to varying degrees. While I don't necessarily think the managers of these portfolios are as effective as an individual investor, they are considerably better than I. Some people enjoy dabbling but I prefer to be an observer! It's simply neither my forte nor do I have time.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Jim, it all depends upon the MERs. I would rather know that I sink or swim on my own decisions, and not have to pay anything more than a $28 buy/sell commission. Some funds are charging over 3% MERs on funds that are losing 25% of your assets. This is insane. I have had total control over my RRSP with a CIBC self-directed plan. It allows me online trading. Since taking charge of my plan, which was after the big 5-year bull market run-up, I have managed an 87% gain in assets over these 6 years. With no fees, and DRIPS for Fortis, I am pleased.


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## used to be jwoodget (Aug 22, 2002)

Want to be my investment manager?


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Don't laugh, Jim, but there are a few people bugging me to handle their investments. I provide some non-specific guidance, but no specific tips, since every investor is different. I am of the school that believes in "hold for the long term" and "put a few eggs in your basket and watch them closely. I have watched my Fortis holdings go from $24000 to over $110000, Shoppers double and 50% gain in Cognos. I hold Esprit Energy Trust for the nearly 14% interest every month, which comes to over $7000 a year. Canada Savings Bonds (the Premium Bonds) are not sexy, but they are safe.


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## RevMatt (Sep 10, 2005)

Cognos is a local company here. I know quite a few people who work there. The only thing I know about it as an investment, though, is that if the labour laws ever notice Cognos exists, their profit margin is going down the toilet.

edit - that was overly harsh. They don't appear to be significantly worse than a lot of other companies. Which is not to say that they aren't unethical, just that I should have stopped expecting the law to give a crap about employees years ago.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Matt, all I know about them is that they are a leader in business intelligence software. How are they unfriendly to workers?


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## RevMatt (Sep 10, 2005)

Extremely demanding. Mandatory overtime, new employess are required to sign a contract agreeing to a longer than the maximum work week in order to be hired. They hire almost exclusively immigrants. Educated immigrants, but educated immigrants from countries like Russia. Vacations are almost impossible to get, and often cancelled before they actually arrived if they are booked. The wage rate is reasonable, however, and the mandatory overtime that is actually overtime, not a part of the extra-long work week, is paid as overtime.

I'm grumpy today, please don't take my negativity overly seriously. The labour situation in this province is horrible overall for the last 10+ years, I'm sure Cognos is not really much worse than anyone else here.


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Matt, thanks for this info. I try to be an ethical investor.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

RevMatt said:


> The labour situation in this province is horrible overall for the last 10+ years, I'm sure Cognos is not really much worse than anyone else here.


From what I've seen, it's much better than it was about 10 years ago and, although I was away for about 5 years, it seems even better than when I had left. I guess we have different perspectives on this.


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## RevMatt (Sep 10, 2005)

Gah! Marc! Don't be silly. It is virtually impossible to invest in a completely ethical corporation. My pension is run by a church, and we don't manage it. It's just not the way that the system works. Dammit, I knew I should have deleted that post before you saw it.

Look, Julie worked for the factory that makes bullet-proof vests for almost every police force in the country, as well as the military. And they were violently blatant in their violation of the labour laws. They can do so, because there is no action if no one complains, and no one can afford to lose their job. This is the way our system works, and has worked since the retooling of the labour laws. Maybe it did before that, too. Cognos pays it's employees well, monetarily. That makes them already a notch better than, many places. Call that a victory. The majority of Ontarians decided a long time ago that they would rather have money than rights. I'm just bitter because I'm not a part of that majority.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

RevMatt said:


> The majority of Ontarians decided a long time ago that they would rather have money than rights. I'm just bitter because I'm not a part of that majority.


I don't agree with your portrayl of the situation (surprise!). Aside from having a different view on 'rights', what are the major changes? 10 years ago the choice was unemployment and severe underemployment for many (the latter was the option I almost took).


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## RevMatt (Sep 10, 2005)

I believe that employment that is exploitative is not progress. Unemployment is down, because the Harris administration changed the rules, and simply cut thousands and thousands of people off from the old welfare. They aren't working, they just don't count any more. Similarily, the vast majority of jobs that are created are part time. That would be the underemployment of which you speak. That is still the reality for far too many people. The big change is the lengthening of the work week, and the addition of the ability for employers to make overtime mandatory. Strange how many business seem to be permanently in a state of crisis requiring overtime.


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## Beej (Sep 10, 2005)

RevMatt said:


> I believe that employment that is exploitative is not progress.
> ...
> Unemployment is down, because the Harris administration changed the rules, and simply cut thousands and thousands of people off from the old welfare.
> They aren't working, they just don't count any more.
> ...


We probably define exploitative differently.
....
It's down primarily because of job creation. Lots of job creation.
...
The part-time % of the total is fairly stable, but slightly lower than 10 years ago. My almost 'underployment' was a significant skills mismatch resulting from a horrid economy.
...
The work week is about the same as 10 years ago, and also quite stable. Lower than in 2000, which isn't necessarily a good thing.
...
Strange indeed. I would worry a lot more about weekly earnings not keeping pace with inflation, but that's just me focussing on money. Productivity is just starting to show some life in Canada and I hope the gains continue; that's where a growing and improving social safety net and personal prosperity will come from.

http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/economy/ecoutlook/statement05/05fs-paperf6.html


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## Dr.G. (Aug 4, 2001)

Tim Horton's stock up above $27 today. Excelsior. (I would hate to have been those who bought in at $37+change).


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## SoyMac (Apr 16, 2005)

*Free Investment Advice from SoyMac:*
"If there's a bandwagon to jump on, you're already too late."


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## TroutMaskReplica (Feb 28, 2003)

well said, soymac.

tim's is a national chain that has already realized its growth potential.

in order for the stock to go up, there actually has to be room for growth.










edit: maybe they can start putting Tim Hortons locations inside or on top of Tim Hortons locations.


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